War can only be started with one bullet
On March 15, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic threatened to board a train in Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Evaluating each other’s forces on the ground increases the likelihood of a collision. Just firing on a calm and tense border or an offensive by a junior non-commissioned officer misunderstanding a particular situation can lead to a fierce battle. Such fighting is beyond the control of local commanders.
Ukraine may have to increase the supply of NATO aircraft
Zelensky repeatedly called on NATO to declare Ukraine a “managed aviation zone.” But NATO leaders have concluded that this could lead to a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. This seems to apply to Zelensky’s other requests, including for the supply of aircraft to assist the Ukrainian Air Force. But if NATO provides direct aircraft to Ukraine, Russia could take action to cut off supplies.
This could include attacks on airports where planes are parked. Poland, for example, before sending a ship to Ukraine. In his address to the US Congress, Zelensky reminded the United States of the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks. He warned of the consequences of NATO’s continued action.
What is Article Five?
NATO membership allows a member state to implement Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to seek the support of other members of the alliance. This article was used by the United States for the first and last time in NATO history after the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington DC. But Article 5 does not guarantee that all other NATO states will send armed forces to stop the attack, only military action is an option that can be incorporated as part of the Alliance’s “collective defense” principle.
A NATO meeting was held in Brussels after the attack
UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid had said in an interview with LBC a few days ago that “if any Russian enters NATO territory, there will be a war with NATO.” On February 25, the day after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the heads of the NATO government met in Brussels. He condemned the invasion of Ukraine and pledged his support to Ukraine. NATO then deployed land and sea resources in its eastern regions.
Some NATO countries do not want to be confused with Russia
NATO began to prepare itself by activating defense plans to secure the area of the alliance in response to any emergency. The research by Canton White, a lecturer in strategic studies and international relations at the University of Reading on NATO, involves informal discussions with a number of officials from various member states. Accordingly, some NATO countries may be reluctant to send troops, even if Article 5 is used.
Russia will respond to NATO with nuclear and chemical weapons
The question is whether the leaders of NATO countries will be ready to invade Russian soil, which is crucial for the conflict. But if that happens, the additional risks will increase and Russia could respond by deploying nuclear or chemical weapons. Conventional or nuclear deterrence – both situations require a rational assessment from both sides. So far, NATO has not been able to stop Putin.
On the contrary, Putin has threatened to inform the coalition of “unprecedented results”. In the meantime, if Russia gets any concessions in the peace talks, the possibility of further demands from its side increases. This is the concern of NATO’s Eastern European members. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.