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Coronavirus India: India should not take stress from growing corona cases in the world, find out why experts are saying

Chandrakant Lahiria
The third wave of Corona from the Micron variant in the country is almost over. Everyday new cases of corona are the lowest in the last 22 months. However, while everyone was hoping for a return to normalcy, a pre-print modeling study predicts that the fourth wave in India could start in June 2022 and peak in August. A new wave is also emerging in China, South Korea and Vietnam. Similarly, countries in Central and Western Europe are showing an increase in cases of corona. Are these developments a cause for concern for India?

Let’s first take a look at IIT-Kanpur’s Mathematical Modeling Study. It was predicted the coming of the fourth wave. Epidemiologists have criticized the method for its shortcomings. The course of an epidemic depends on a number of epidemiological factors. Such as the average age of the population; Immunity (either natural infection or after vaccination); When the final stage of infection came. Therefore, such modeling-based projections require robust and epidemiologically fine data. It is not publicly available in my country.

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The study of the ‘fourth wave’ is purely statistical analysis. There are not enough factors related to the epidemiological aspects involved. The result should be called a ‘wise guess’. This is not entirely surprising as far as the recent Kovid-19 movement in countries like China, South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand is concerned. These countries are operating under the ‘Zero Covid Strategy’. However, the omicron variant of the Corona is far more contagious than all previous SARS CoV2 variants. These are also countries where there have been fewer infections in the past. Here, vaccination coverage is high. However, the protection provided by the two doses of the vaccine ceases after about 9 to 12 months. The situation seems to be similar in these countries. The role of most vaccines is very limited when it comes to preventing infection or reducing the spread of disease. Although corona cases are on the rise, hospital admissions and mortality rates are low.

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In Central and Western European countries, growth can be attributed to a number of factors. These include relaxation of corona restrictions, lack of immunization in proportion to the adult population; And BA.2 sub variants. These things matter in the context of an epidemic or a global epidemic. Conditions in any two countries may be similar or comparable.

Each corona vaccine differs from the other in terms of efficacy and safety. Second, the level of natural infection varies from country to continent. Epidemiologically, the safety of any vaccine also depends on whether the vaccine was given after the infection or the infection after the vaccination. Third, countries have adopted different vaccine dosages and combinations for booster.

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India’s position is very different from that of China or European countries. First of all, most of the population of India has been exposed to the corona virus in the first two waves of the corona. Due to this they have developed immunity and immunity. Second, about 97% of the adult population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Third, the majority of the adult population has taken their second dose in the second half of 2021. Because full immunizations are expected to provide protection for at least 9 to 12 months, the majority of the population is expected to be safe. At the same time booster doses are being introduced for the weaker population. As such, it will serve as a kind of insurance for future expansion.

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Fourth, the latest wave came in January-February. The new infection is expected to boost the immune system in people who have been vaccinated or previously infected. Fifth, unlike Europe, where the ba.1 sub variant was responsible for the increase in early Omicron cases (hence they are facing ba.2), the ba.2 sub variant was the major pressure in the Omicron wave in India. Taken together, there is little prospect of a new large-scale nationwide movement in India in the near future. The only situation in which India could face a new wave if a new form that beats the high resistance. Although such a situation is possible, it is not possible to predict when it will happen.

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Meanwhile, with the fewest daily cases since May 2020, it’s time to plan ‘Living with Covid’ in the country. The Government of India needs to come up with a hierarchical strategy to phase out face masks. As a first step, it can be completely removed for all school children. Policy makers and public health experts need to monitor coronavirus status in other countries to learn and develop the genomic sequence in the country to ensure early detection of any new forms. For those living in India, the increase in cases in China or any other country is not a cause for concern.
(The author is a primary care physician, preventative medicine specialist and epidemiologist)

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